Below are my Forex technical forecasts for 2024.
My technical analysis heavily relies on support and resistance, price action, and moving averages.
You can read my 2024 fundamental analysis here: https://www.actualforextrading.com/single-post/forex-forecast-2024
Technical Analysis Forecast by Currency
Australian Dollar vs. Canadian Dollar (AUDCAD)
Current direction: AUDCAD continues to range between the weekly levels of 0.8600 and 0.9500. Price is also consolidating between weekly diagonal support and resistance.
The weekly moving averages confirm the market indecision - they are tight and moving sideways.
2024 Direction: There is no technical indication that there could be a range break-out.
The fundamentals suggest that AUDCAD could move higher and reach the weekly range resistance and monthly diagonal resistance areas.
Top Tip: Look for trend-buying and opportunities on the daily and 4-hourly timeframes.
Australian Dollar vs. United States Dollar (AUDUSD)
Current direction:Â Price has been down-trending but has recently broken above a critical trend resistance area weekly. The moving averages have been bearish but are becoming more bullish.
2024 Direction: The recent close above the weekly trend line and moving averages suggest a possible upside for AUDUSD.
Fundamental analysis provides no clear direction for this pair.
Top Tip:Â Look for trend-buying and opportunities on the daily and 4-hourly timeframes.
Canadian Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (CADJPY)
Current direction:Â CADJPY is clearly up-trending. Price action is currently forming a new swing high. The weekly moving averages confirm the trend - they are bullish and steady.
2024 Direction: Price has failed to form a significantly higher swing high, which has created a clear horizontal resistance at 110.00. There is also a bearish divergence on the weekly RSI. A continued lack of upside momentum may mean CADJPY ranges between 110.00 and the weekly support at 95.00.
The fundamentals suggest that this pair will become bearish. A move to the weekly range of support at 95.00 is likely.
Top Tip:Â Look for shorting opportunities on the daily and 4-hourly time-frames. Some strong downside moves may form from interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
You can learn more about CADJPY here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CADJPY/U2uYiFXl-Early-Entry-around-Range-Resistance/
Euro vs. Great British Pound (EURGBP)
Current direction:Â EURGBP continues to move within a weekly range at 0.8250 to 0.9300. The moving averages have crossed frequently and are moving sideways, confirming the sideways price action.
2024 Direction: Price action has formed a series of lower-swing highs and a clear diagonal resistance area, suggesting that upside momentum is weakening. EURGBP is developing a potential descending triangle pattern, signalling a possible bearish break-out.
The fundamentals signal that the EURGBP could move lower. This is based on the ECB cutting interest rates before the BOE, the latter likely holding higher rates for longer.
Top Tip:Â Look for long-term shorting opportunities. A good broker will offer a positive swap rate being short EURGBP, incentivising holding for longer.
You can learn more about EURGBP here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURGBP/26fQOai3-The-Euro-will-weaken-against-the-GBP/
Euro vs. Japanese Yen (EURJPY)
Current direction:Â EURJPY is clearly up-trending and is in a retrace move after forming a new swing high. Price is moving within a bullish channel.
2024 Direction: The moving averages are bullish and steady, and price action continues to signal upside momentum, suggesting that the uptrend may continue.
However, fundamental analysis strongly suggests that this pair may become bearish and that the weekly uptrend is ending.
Top Tip:Â Bears should look for shorting opportunities around the recent swing high at 163 and if the bullish channel support area breaks. The apparent entry areas for bulls are the weekly moving averages, the bullish channel support area, and the previous horizontal resistance at 147-148.
Euro vs. United States Dollar (EURUSD)
Current direction:Â The EURUSD is indecisive and moving within a weekly range of 1.0500 to 1.1200. The moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways - confirming the market indecision.
2024 Direction: There is no current technical reason to suggest a range break-out in either direction. However, a bullish break-out may find resistance around the monthly diagonal resistance.
Fundamental analysis suggests that EURUSD may reach the weekly range support area and attempt a bearish break-out. This is based on the ECB cutting rates before the Fed.
Top Tip:Â Prepare for more sideways price action until the ECB and Fed interest rate cuts become clearer.
Great British Pound vs. United States Dollar (GBPUSD)
Current direction:Â Price is indecisive and moving sideways.
2024 Direction: The weekly moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways, providing no clear future price direction. GBPUSD may continue moving sideways throughout 2024.
Top Tip:Â Fundamental analysis will be the driving force behind this pair. When the fundamentals change, GBPUSD should start trending.
United States Dollar vs. Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)
Current direction:Â USDCAD ranges between weekly support at 1.3200 and weekly resistance at 1.3900. Price is around the range support area.
2024 Direction: The moving averages are tightening, suggesting the range could continue. A break to the downside of the range may find support around 1.2950.
Fundamental analysis suggests that USDCAD will be bullish in 2024. This is based on The Bank of Canada cutting rates sooner and a more substantial Canadian recession than the United States.
Top Tip:Â Expect a move to the weekly range resistance area.
You can learn more about USDCAD here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCAD/qTyWliYf-Preparing-for-BOC-Rate-Cuts/
United States Dollar vs. Swiss Franc (USDCHF)
Current direction:Â USDCHF has been bearish and is down-trending. Price action is currently forming a swing lower.
2024 Direction: The weekly moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend will continue. However, USDCHF could form a bullish retrace move before moving lower.
Fundamental analysis suggests that this pair will become indecisive.
Top Tip:Â Even if the downtrend continues, expect at least some choppiness.
United States Dollar vs. Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
Current direction: Price is clearly up-trending and is in a retrace move.
2024 Direction: The weekly moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend will continue. However, the most recent swing high was weak, signalling that upside momentum may weaken. USDJPY could start ranging between 128 and 151.
Fundamental analysis suggests that USDJPY will become bearish and possibly attempt a bearish move to the weekly range support area at 128.
Top Tip:Â Strong Yen moves could occur during Bank of Japan news events, primarily interest rate decisions and BOJ speeches and conferences.
You can learn more about USDJPY here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/84NWx1ud-The-Yen-Bull-Bomb-is-Ticking/
The Best Forex Pairs to Trade in 2024
Reviewing the technical analysis of all major and minor currency pairs, here is a list of the best trading opportunities:
Bullish Pairs
AUDCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Bearish Pairs
CADJPY
EURAUD
EURGBP
EURJPY
EURUSD
Indecisive Pairs
AUDUSD
CADCHF
GBPAUD
GBPCHF
GBPUSD